High Hopes For ERHE Buoy Investors; Big Gains Anticipated In Price And Volume This Week
Well-founded and high expectations for ERHE's prospects are stirring investors around the world and on the Raging Bull message board, where nearly 500 posts in the past 24 hours greeted the official news from the Nigeria-Sao Tome Joint Development Authority (JDA) that awards are expected by the end of February.
Even though this is the third announced deadline, the JDA is likely to meet this one, having got most of its major business out of the way. The only wild card in the deck is the deuce of 25 percent preferential rights dealt to ExxonMobil. A delay in exercising those rights on XOM's part could snag the process again, but none is anticipated. A caveat: the unanticipated happens often in Africa.
Volume should be substantially higher than last week and should climb through Friday, the last day of trading before the referenced "end of the month" on Monday, Feb. 28.
I expect the news - good, bad or indifferent - to filter down slowly, as it usually does, and then gain strong momentum as new buyers move into the market.
Just the same, the stiock may open a half cent lower today as short sellers and others play their game, but ERHE should be well on its way to a February high by noon. Day traders should be in abundance by then, and 3 million shares should trade. Look for 7 million by Friday, and a similar or larger number on Monday next.
I also expect a minimum gain of four cents on Tuesday, and a maximum of eight cents. The good news is that the same gains could be repeated tomorrow and Thursday. By Friday, I expect that more breaking news will create its own paradigm. Gains could skyrocket, depending on the dominant rumors of the day.
With our recent major coverage, awareness of our prospects is at an all-time high, and that should be to our strong advantage in the rumor mill.
Nothing is guaranteed to anyone with respect to the awards themselves. While I believe we will win big, I could be in for a nasty surprise when the envelopes are opened; meanwhile, I look for every possible sign and omen in the press here and abroad and even in the tenor of discussions on RB, but I play the stock by the news that counts - the Reuters, Dow Jones, Lusa, AFP and AP stories that will detail the winning bids.
As always, there may be mistakes in the first reports that will initially hurt morale.
If the AP gets the story first, it is likely to drop ERHC's name in ERHE's Devon Energy/Pioneer Natural Resources (Blocks 2 and 3) and the Noble Drilling (Block 4) consortia because it has never written a word about us.
The same is likely to be true of of the Portuguese reports from Lusa and French reports from the Agence France-Presse, but we can expect solid facts from the Vitrina and Tela Non Websites - if they are updated.
All-Africa is unlikely to have early reports. The Nigerian newspapers, too, seem incapable of covering the awards in a timely way and may well tip us early to bidders whom they favor, especially Conoil, rather than those who have actually won. Reuters and UpstreamOnline are better than 50 percent likely to get the results right the first time. >br>
Our best bet is for a wide-ranging and very accurate release from the Dow Jones News Service, which by now is certainly on the alert for errors regarding ERHE.
One lingering possibility is that the name submitted in our bid to the JDA is the one that will be announced, and if that is the case, there will be a delay in press coverage and as investors search out the defunct Environmental Remediation Holding Corp. name and find the ERHC Energy symbol, ERHE.
However it turns out, this is going to be a very exciting week. The last day of the month is next Monday, just five business days from today, and the action will be non-stop. Stay tuned.
Even though this is the third announced deadline, the JDA is likely to meet this one, having got most of its major business out of the way. The only wild card in the deck is the deuce of 25 percent preferential rights dealt to ExxonMobil. A delay in exercising those rights on XOM's part could snag the process again, but none is anticipated. A caveat: the unanticipated happens often in Africa.
Volume should be substantially higher than last week and should climb through Friday, the last day of trading before the referenced "end of the month" on Monday, Feb. 28.
I expect the news - good, bad or indifferent - to filter down slowly, as it usually does, and then gain strong momentum as new buyers move into the market.
Just the same, the stiock may open a half cent lower today as short sellers and others play their game, but ERHE should be well on its way to a February high by noon. Day traders should be in abundance by then, and 3 million shares should trade. Look for 7 million by Friday, and a similar or larger number on Monday next.
I also expect a minimum gain of four cents on Tuesday, and a maximum of eight cents. The good news is that the same gains could be repeated tomorrow and Thursday. By Friday, I expect that more breaking news will create its own paradigm. Gains could skyrocket, depending on the dominant rumors of the day.
With our recent major coverage, awareness of our prospects is at an all-time high, and that should be to our strong advantage in the rumor mill.
Nothing is guaranteed to anyone with respect to the awards themselves. While I believe we will win big, I could be in for a nasty surprise when the envelopes are opened; meanwhile, I look for every possible sign and omen in the press here and abroad and even in the tenor of discussions on RB, but I play the stock by the news that counts - the Reuters, Dow Jones, Lusa, AFP and AP stories that will detail the winning bids.
As always, there may be mistakes in the first reports that will initially hurt morale.
If the AP gets the story first, it is likely to drop ERHC's name in ERHE's Devon Energy/Pioneer Natural Resources (Blocks 2 and 3) and the Noble Drilling (Block 4) consortia because it has never written a word about us.
The same is likely to be true of of the Portuguese reports from Lusa and French reports from the Agence France-Presse, but we can expect solid facts from the Vitrina and Tela Non Websites - if they are updated.
All-Africa is unlikely to have early reports. The Nigerian newspapers, too, seem incapable of covering the awards in a timely way and may well tip us early to bidders whom they favor, especially Conoil, rather than those who have actually won. Reuters and UpstreamOnline are better than 50 percent likely to get the results right the first time. >br>
Our best bet is for a wide-ranging and very accurate release from the Dow Jones News Service, which by now is certainly on the alert for errors regarding ERHE.
One lingering possibility is that the name submitted in our bid to the JDA is the one that will be announced, and if that is the case, there will be a delay in press coverage and as investors search out the defunct Environmental Remediation Holding Corp. name and find the ERHC Energy symbol, ERHE.
However it turns out, this is going to be a very exciting week. The last day of the month is next Monday, just five business days from today, and the action will be non-stop. Stay tuned.
posted by ...Joe Shea at 2:23 AM
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